August 2026 CPI Holds at 3.4% as Fed Hike Odds Jump

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The report gives loan officers another reason to keep borrower rate conversations current, especially with markets pricing in a stronger chance of Fed tightening.

The August 2026 CPI report landed close to expectations on the headline number, with inflation holding at 3.4% year over year, according to a Sept. 11 report from Realtor.com Research. Core inflation cooled to 2.4% year over year, but the monthly core reading was hotter than forecast, which kept pressure on the Federal Reserve conversation that mortgage professionals have been watching all year.

The immediate market reaction was not quiet. Realtor.com Research reported that CME FedWatch was overwhelmed by traffic shortly after the CPI release and, once it came back online, market-implied Fed hike odds had climbed to 87%; that matters for loan officers because rate-sensitive borrowers are already dealing with affordability stress and Realtor.com Research said mortgage rates had reached another 2026 high.

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